The numbers are out and they are not kind to the party that spent eighteen months convinced it was riding into November on a historic wave of anti-Trump outrage.
Start with the most revealing data point of all: Democratic disapproval of
Trump has collapsed from 90% in 2018 to 69% today. That’s a 21-point drop in the intensity of opposition that powered the last blue wave. In 2018, nine out of ten Democrats who hated Trump showed up and voted that way. Today, nearly one in three of those same voters have apparently decided they don’t hate him quite enough to make it their defining political motivation. When your entire electoral strategy is built on one man’s unpopularity and that unpopularity drops 21 points among your own base, you have a serious problem.
The generic congressional ballot confirms it. In 2018, Democrats led by 10 points heading into the midterms. Today, they’re up by 3 in the Washington Post/Ipsos poll — and analysts who track this stuff closely have a simple rule: anything under
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